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Mike Clay
Multiple Authors
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 3, which kicks off Thursday night with a game between the Falcons and Packers.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
ATL-GB | LAC-BUF | CAR-CLE | NYJ-DET | HOU-IND | KC-MIA | TEN-NYG | CIN-PIT
SEA-WAS | NE-JAX | ARI-SF| MIN-TB| BAL-DAL | LV-NO| LAR-DEN | PHI-CHI
Projected score: Packers 28, Falcons 19
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Christian Watson
Fantasy scoop: The good news is that Tucker Kraft leapt from a 66% snap share and 48% route participation in Week 1 to 100% of snaps and 78% of routes in Week 2. The bad news is that his targets (6-to-3), yardage (65-to-15) and fantasy points (9.5-to-3.5) all dipped in his second game back.
This makes Kraft a tricky evaluation here in Week 3, but he’s now playing a full-time role, there are more targets available with Jayden Reed sidelined, and it’s a good matchup against an Atlanta defense that has already allowed three touchdowns to tight ends. There’s some risk here as Kraft gets back to his old self after last year’s torn ACL, but he remains a fine back-end fantasy TE1.
Over/Under: 46.8 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 79% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Bills 30, Chargers 24
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid
Fantasy scoop: Justin Herbert was a popular “sleeper” during draft season, but it’s not looking good for him thus far. Through two games, he has been limited to 401 yards, two passing TDs and three INTs, and only an additional 31 yards on eight carries. Herbert hasn’t finished top 10 in fantasy PPG since 2021, so we can’t be shocked that he hasn’t made the leap to clear-cut QB1 territory, but it’s certainly shocking to see such a drop-off in production from 2025 — especially against Arizona and Las Vegas.
Herbert has a shot to get rolling this week against a Buffalo defense that allowed 29.8 points to Jared Goff last week, but the schedule gets substantially harder from there (Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, Ravens). Herbert is tough to trust as a streaming option this week and, if he doesn’t rebound in a big way, he will be a strong post-Week 3 drop candidate.
Over/Under: 53.6 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bills 70% (9th highest)
Projected score: Panthers 21, Browns 20
Lineup locks: Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker
Fantasy scoop: Quinshon Judkins is off to a very slow start, having totaled just 54 yards on 24 carries (2.3 YPC) and 44 yards on seven targets through two games. Judkins has yet to find the end zone and hasn’t cleared 10.1 fantasy points in his past five games (tracing back to last season).
The good news is that Judkins handled five targets last week (17% share) and he has a good Week 3 matchup at home against Carolina. The Panthers have allowed a league-high 406 yards and the second-most RB fantasy points thus far and, while a lot of that damage came in Week 1 against Chicago, Atlanta’s RBs totaled 148 yards against them in Week 2.
Judkins’ slow start makes him risky, but his sizable role (68% snap share) and the plus matchup are enough to get him into the RB2 mix this week.
Over/Under: 41.8 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Panthers 54% (12th highest)
Projected score: Lions 28, Jets 21
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson
Fantasy scoop: Adonai Mitchell is locked in as the Jets’ No. 2 receiver — a role that allowed him a hefty 12 targets in Week 2. Mitchell didn’t do a ton with the heavy usage (6-63-0) and wasn’t targeted nearly as often in Week 1 (3-60-0 on three targets). Mitchell has been heavily targeted since joining the Jets in Week 11 last season (25% target share). Still, that has allowed him only two strong fantasy outings (17-plus points in Week 13 and 15 last season) and he’s averaging 5.7 points per game in the other eight outings.
Mitchell figures to hit for the occasional big play, but the New York offense will continue to run through Hall and Wilson, with rookies Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. eventually becoming more involved. Mitchell has a good matchup against Detroit (most catches, yards and fantasy points allowed to wide receivers), but he’s no more than a risky flex.
Over/Under: 49.6 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Lions 75% (5th highest)
Projected score: Colts 22, Texans 22
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Nico Collins, Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: Alec Pierce is set to miss time after exiting Week 2 due to a shin injury. Following his departure, the Colts’ WR routes were as follows: Laquon Treadwell 24, Josh Downs 22, Keenan Allen 15 and Deion Burks 1 (Ashton Dulin was out).
Downs had the best fantasy day (7-72-0 on nine targets) and would very much be in the WR3 mix if Pierce is sidelined. Treadwell was Pierce’s clear replacement, which helped him to 61 yards on three targets, but especially considering he hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since 2021 with the Jaguars, he won’t be a recommended flex option. Allen turned five targets into 5 yards Sunday after totaling 32 yards on six looks in Week 1. He’s not a fantasy option.
Over/Under: 44.7 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 51% (15th highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 28, Dolphins 17
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, De‘Von Achane, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: It only took two weeks, but the Mahomes/Kelce battery has returned to “lineup lock” status. Mahomes has scored three-plus total touchdowns and 21-plus fantasy points in both of his first two games, whereas Kelce followed up a solid 3-71-0 performance in Week 1 with a huge 9-101-1 showing Sunday night. It was Kelce’s best fantasy outing since Week 7 of 2023 and his first 100-plus yard game since Week 9 of 2024.
The Mahomes/Kelce combo is well positioned for another big game, with a Miami defense on tap that allowed strong outings to both Brock Purdy (28.5) and George Kittle (18.0) in Week 2.
Over/Under: 45.2 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 87% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Giants 24, Titans 17
Lineup locks: Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Isaiah Likely
Fantasy scoop: The Titans’ WR room is worth a look after a slow start and some surprising usage in Week 2. Rookie Carnell Tate has been limited to 65 yards on 11 targets through two games, but the good news is that he’s clearly operating as the No. 1 receiver (84% route participation, 24% target share). Combined with his talent, that usage is enough to keep Tate in the WR3 discussion against the Giants.
Wan’Dale Robinson’s outlook is more concerning after he dipped from 82% of snaps in Week 1 to 53% in Week 2 (fourth among Tennessee receivers, behind Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor). Robinson did run more routes than Ridley and Ayomanor (by five), but he was nonetheless limited to 9 yards on his lone target. This, after he totaled 38 yards on six targets in Week 1. Robinson is best left on benches and, in shallower leagues, can be sent to waivers.
Over/Under: 41.5 (Lowest)
Win Probability: Giants 73% (6th highest)
Projected score: Steelers 21, Bengals 21
Lineup locks: Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: Year 2 of the Aaron Rodgers/DK Metcalf connection is off to a poor start. During a boom/bust 2025 campaign in which the duo played 14 games together, Metcalf caught 59% of his targets and averaged 8.5 yards per target. Two games into 2026, Metcalf has posted an 8-67-0 receiving line on 19 targets (42% C%, 3.5 YPT). Metcalf sits top 5 among wide receivers in snaps, routes and targets, but only 62nd in receiving yards and has yet to find the end zone.
Better days are ahead, but especially with Michael Pittman Jr. in the mix this season (he was out in Week 2), Metcalf appears to be a long shot for consistent fantasy value. His heavy usage is just enough to keep him in the flex mix despite facing an improved Bengals defense that didn’t allow any Buccaneers or Nico Collins-less Texans receivers to reach 11.5 fantasy points in their first two games.
Expect Metcalf to see shadow coverage from DJ Turner, who held him below 10 fantasy points in both 2025 meetings.
Over/Under: 42.2 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 52% (14th highest)
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Commanders 19
Lineup locks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy scoop: Jayden Daniels (elbow) is out this week, which positions Marcus Mariota as Washington’s starting quarterback. Mariota played seven full games in relief of Daniels last season and was solid, averaging 17.1 fantasy PPG, which would have ranked as QB12 over the full season. Mariota averaged 215.2 passing yards per game and threw at least one touchdown in all seven. Also a big factor with his legs, he totaled a 45-257-1 rushing line during the stretch.
Mariota will be a streaming option when the matchup is right, but that’s not the case in Week 3 against a Seattle defense that allowed a grand total of two touchdowns and 16.3 fantasy points to Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett. As for Mariota’s supporting cast, only McLaurin (15.8 fantasy PPG in four games with Mariota last season) and Stefon Diggs should be considered for lineups.
Over/Under: 45.8 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 78% (4th highest)
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Patriots 23
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington
Fantasy scoop: The Patriots backfield is a bit of a mystery following a Week 2 shakeup. Rhamondre Stevenson played the first four snaps against Pittsburgh, but he fumbled on the team’s fourth offensive play and went on to get out-snapped 32-15 by TreVeyon Henderson the rest of the game. Henderson, who was making his 2026 debut, posted a healthy 16-76-1 rushing line (most of which came on a 39-yard TD run), but was held without a target on 11 routes. Stevenson was limited to 6-43-0 rushing and was targeted on just two of his 11 routes.
Just like during the 2025 regular season, it’s likely that this will be a committee attack, with carries split and Stevenson used as the starter and primary option in passing situations. That’s just enough to make Stevenson the preferred flex of the two.
Over/Under: 46.5 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 55% (11th highest)
Projected score: 49ers 31, Cardinals 17
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr., Trey McBride, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: Hopes were high for Arizona’s starting wide receivers, but neither Michael Wilson nor Marvin Harrison Jr. can be counted on right now.
Wilson’s usage has been fine (94% route participation and seven targets in both games), but it hasn’t translated to much production (74 yards on seven receptions). Harrison has been even worse than his doubters could have anticipated. Despite a healthy 84% route participation, the 2024 fourth overall draft pick has been held to one 33-yard reception on four targets this season.
Seattle’s elite defense was certainly a variable in Week 2, but life won’t be much easier this weekend against a 49ers defense that hadn’t allowed a single passing TD prior to the final moments of Sunday’s 35-13 blowout win. Wilson is in the flex discussion, but Harrison can’t be trusted right now (or perhaps anytime soon).
Over/Under: 48.1 (4th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 91% (Highest)
Projected score: Vikings 21, Buccaneers 21
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: Egbuka is off to an underwhelming start, but he remains a lineup lock against Minnesota. The second-year receiver leads Tampa Bay’s WR room in snaps (100), but Baker Mayfield has spread the ball around quite a bit, which has led to four Buccaneers seeing either 10 or 11 targets (Egbuka, Cade Otton, Irving, Ted Hurst III).
Egbuka’s target share has dipped from 24% as a rookie to 18% this season. On the plus side, Egbuka hasn’t been terrible, having scored double-digit fantasy points in both games (5-63-0 in Week 1, 3-16-1 in Week 2). The dip in usage is a mild concern, but Egbuka remains a solid bet to emerge as Mayfield’s top target. He remains in the WR3 mix against a Vikings defense that shut down Chicago last week, but surrendered 55.2 fantasy points to Green Bay’s receivers in Week 1.
Over/Under: 42.4 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 50.1% (Lowest)
Projected score: Ravens 26, Cowboys 25
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Zay Flowers, George Pickens
Fantasy scoop: Jake Ferguson scored two touchdowns and 20.3 fantasy points last week, which marked his best fantasy outing since Week 7 of last season. Despite the strong effort, Ferguson remains off the TE1 radar right now. Through two games, he’s seen a total of only six targets. That works out to a 10% target share, which is down considerably from the 16-17% range he’s been in the past three seasons.
Perhaps this dip shouldn’t be a surprise considering that Ferguson went from a 22% target share during Weeks 1-7 to 13% during Weeks 8-18 last season (Lamb was out during Weeks 3-6). Ferguson should only be in lineups if Lamb or Pickens miss time. Pickens, by the way, is an excellent trade target this week, as he has been limited to 15.8 fantasy points despite a healthy 23% target share (up slightly from 2025). He remains a lineup lock.
Over/Under: 51.4 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 54% (13th highest)
Projected score: Saints 26, Raiders 20
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Chris Olave, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: How many running backs are making more money than Travis Etienne Jr.? Ten. How many have more carries than Etienne this season? Thirty-seven.
New Orleans’ early-season RB usage has been one of the biggest head-scratchers in fantasy. Etienne, who was signed to a four-year, $48 million contract during free agency, has a total of just 109 yards on only 26 touches — both numbers are outside the top 25 — despite benefiting from overtime snaps in the season opener. Perhaps most alarming was his usage in Week 2, as Alvin Kamara returned from injury and led the RB room in carries (nine) and targets (six). Etienne paced the group in snaps (34), but was limited to eight carries and two targets. Undrafted rookie CJ Donaldson was also involved, totaling one carry on 20 snaps.
Maybe Etienne will play more as the season progresses. For now, he’s not seeing enough work to justify an RB2 designation in fantasy. Consider him a flex against a Raiders defense that has been serviceable against backs thus far.
Over/Under: 45.2 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 71% (8th highest)
Projected score: Rams 24, Broncos 22
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle
Fantasy scoop: One of the steadiest QB/WR batteries in fantasy over the past two seasons, Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton are off to a very slow start.
Nix was better in Week 2 (14.1 fantasy points) than in the season opener (5.4), but he has a total of just two touchdowns and 8 rushing yards. He has a better supporting cast than he did when he finished top 10 in fantasy PPG during his first two pro seasons, so he is a candidate for a rebound — as long he gets back to rushing the ball (350-plus yards and 4-plus TDs in each of his first two seasons). Of course, this might not be the week to plug him in your lineup, with a good Rams defense on tap.
Sutton, meanwhile, has a total of only 36 yards on nine targets through two games. His 16% target share is his lowest since his rookie season in 2018. Sutton remains a full-time player (81% route participation), so better days are ahead. Still, concerns that he may not be as reliable in fantasy due to the arrival of Waddle might have some merit. He will see some Trent McDuffie this week and is no more than a flex option.
Over/Under: 45.8 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 56% (10th highest)
Projected score: Eagles 26, Bears 20
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith
Fantasy scoop: Caleb Williams (hamstring) is likely to miss this game, which positions Tyson Bagent (who is in the league’s concussion protocol) or Case Keenum to start. It would be the first start for either quarterback since the 2023 season. Bagent played four full games that season (the only four of his career) and failed to impress, throwing three touchdowns and averaging 11.9 fantasy PPG. Keenum has a grand total of 60 passing attempts over the last four seasons and hasn’t produced 13-plus fantasy points in any game since 2019.
Regardless of who is under center, it’s fair to expect a substantial dip in Chicago’s offensive production. Luther Burden III (8-95-0 receiving this season), Rome Odunze (5-95-0) and Colston Loveland (1-3-0) have all struggled, even with a healthy Williams. None of the three can be considered lineup locks against a good Eagles defense.
Over/Under: 45.2 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 71% (7th highest)
